Key observations from this report are as follows:
- Real Economy: The non-oil PMI started the third quarter indicating strong, but slower growth in the private sector. At 54.4, the reading continues to indicate healthy expansion. Cement sales saw a healthy rebound in July by 7.4 percent year-on-year and by 22 percent month-on-month. The latest available data show non-oil exports rising by 7 percent in June.
- Consumer Spending: Total consumer spending rebounded in July by 11.4 percent year-on-year, with a monthly gain of 3.4 percent. Rises were seen in both cash withdrawals and POS transactions. Looking at POS transactions by sector, spending on ‘education’ saw the largest increase during the month.
- SAMA Foreign Reserve Assets: SAMA’s FX reserves were down in July by almost $15 billion, to stand at $452 billion, although remained higher year to date. The monthly decline came from bank deposits, which fell by $16.6 billion, meanwhile, foreign securities rose by $1.5 billion.
- Money Supply, Bank Deposits and Credit: The broad measure of money supply (M3) rose by almost 8 percent year-on-year in July, despite a monthly decline of 1 percent. Total deposits were up 8 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, residential new mortgages for individuals rebounded in July, up by 29 percent year-on-year, and by 33 percent month-on-month.
- Inflation: Consumer prices rose by 1.5 percent year-on-year in July, and by 0.1 percent month-on-month. ‘Housing and utilities’ continued trending upwards, up by 9.3 percent year-on-year, supported by further gains in the ’rentals for housing’ sub-group item.
- Real Estate Q2 2024: Real estate prices rose by 1.7 percent, year-on-year in Q2 2024, and by 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. While the rate of price decline for commercial real estate was lower in Q2, the main driver behind the price rise was residential real estate prices, which saw a significant increase of 2.8 percent.
- Oil-Global: Oil prices softened in August due to concerns over demand, with data pointing to slowing economic activity in the US and subdued growth in China. Geopolitical risk and greater confidence over US Fed interest rate cuts provided a cushion for prices.
- Oil-Saudi Arabia: Saudi crude oil production averaged 8.9 Mbps in July, in line with the OPEC+ agreement. Saudi exports of crude oil and refined products averaged 7.4 mbpd, according to latest official data.
