JP Morgan estimates a 50% probability that Moody’s will upgrade Portugal’s sovereign credit rating at its review scheduled for 22 May, according to a research note on euro area ratings.
Analysts Aditya Chordia and Matteo Mamprin note that an upgrade would further strengthen Portugal’s position among the least risky sovereigns in the euro area. Moody’s currently rates Portugal at A3 with a stable outlook, below Standard & Poor’s (A+), Fitch (A) and DBRS (A high).
The assessment comes as Portugal prepares to meet net financing needs of €13 billion in 2026, under a funding strategy centred on Treasury Bond issuance, as outlined by the Portuguese Treasury and Debt Management Agency (IGCP).
Portugal continues to benefit from favourable market conditions, with the spread on 10-year Portuguese bonds versus German bunds at historic lows, reflecting sustained investor confidence in the country’s public finances.
