Merchandise exports jumped 29.3% in annual terms in July, on the heels of June’s 54.4% upturn. July’s result marked the ninth consecutive month of growth in exports. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 44.4% on an annual basis in July (June: +60.0% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 2.6 billion surplus in July (June 2021: USD 1.3 billion surplus; July 2020: USD 3.2 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 27.4 billion surplus in July, compared to the USD 28.0 billion surplus in June.
Our panelists forecast that in 2021 exports will increase 14.7% and imports will rise 14.0%, with a trade surplus of USD 20.7 billion. In 2021, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 3.1%, while imports will rise 7.9%, with a trade surplus of USD 13.3 billion.