Consumer confidence was unchanged at May's minus 9.0 in June, marking the joint-highest reading since March 2020. Consumers’ greater optimism about their financial situation was offset by a less upbeat view of the general economy.
Regarding June’s reading, Joe Staton, GfK’s client strategy director, stated:
"The upwards trajectory for the Index since the dark days at the start of the pandemic is currently still on track. However, forecasts for rising retail price inflation could weaken consumer confidence quickly and that may account for the six-point dip in June in our measure for the wider economy in the coming year. On a more positive note, we have strong numbers for our personal financial situation, both for the past year and the year to come. In addition, this month’s further improvement in the Major Purchase Index—the third month in a row—could see shoppers spending in anticipation of a staycation summer.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption expanding 4.6% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before rising 6.3% in 2022.